Why Obama should skip Tavis Smiley's State of the Black Union

Sen. Barack Obama took a lot of heat last year from participants in Tavis Smiley's State of the Black Union annual confab, which was held in Virginia. To be fair, he was a little busy that day...announcing HE WAS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT!

Some of the folks there were besides themselves, and frankly, were childish about it, even saying that he should have put off his presidential announcement to be there.

Now, almost a year later, he is faced with a similar dilemma.

Tavis has announced that he will hold his State of the Black Union annual talkfest on Feb. 23 in New Orleans, La. This is a huge event attended by thousands each year; broadcast on C-SPAN; and attracts some of the nation's top black activists, politicians and intellectuals.

During his commentary Thursday on the Tom Joyner Morning Show, the most listened to black radio show, Tavis said he's invited the three top candidates, Republican frontrunner, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. He said only one has accepted, and he will wait until tomorrow for the other two to decide.

He didn't say which one decided to attend, but on Friday, Clinton announced that she was attending.

In his commentary, Smiley said he was going to snap on those who don't attend on Tuesday's show, demanding that they own up to black issues and zero in on social justice issues as outlined in the book he edited, "The Covenant with Black America."

Here is my analysis of the situation, and hopefully it will put this presidential campaign and the delicate task of navigating the waters of black politics in perspective.

1. Clinton MUST attend. She led Obama in all of 2007 among black voters by huge margins. But that trend has shifted -dramatically. At best, she's polling at 25% among African Americans. Her acceptance is critical because she needs to capture 30% to 40% of the black to really stop Obama.

The perceived racial slights toward Obama by Clinton campaign surrogates, as well as her husband, former President Bill Clinton, has done significant damage in the black community. His attempts to explain the comments haven't mollified African Americans. Her appearance at the event can help her restore her standing among a vital Democratic constituency, which she will need to turn out en masse if she wins the nomination.

Also, her campaign doesn't have the cash Obama has. She needs any free media. And if Obama shows up, that means all the national media will be there, and the stage is set for her. Tavis said on the air that he would push for the candidates to debate the issues. She's called for more; Obama has only accepted two.

Smart politics on her part, and if I were advising her, no doubt I would tell her to attend.

2. Obama must look forward, not in the past. The Louisiana primary, which he won handily, was on Saturday. Why go back to Louisiana for an event on Feb. 23? That is not to dismiss the needs of people along the Gulf Coast. But the only way he can truly help them is if he wins the nomination and the White House.

Obama needs to be solely focused on Texas and Ohio. Those two mega-states offer a huge bounty of delegates, and he needs to win a large state to move ahead of Clinton. She polls strongly in both states, and they are a huge part of her winning strategy; so much of her time will be spent there in the coming weeks.

All his time must be on the ground. In Texas, he must blanket South Texas because of the Hispanic influence. He didn't do well among Hispanics in California, and he must change that.

There is some hope (no pun intended). When former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk ran in 2002 for the U.S. Senate, he took 74 percent of South Texas. Yes, an Hispanic was running for governor, but that bodes well for Obama. In Ohio, he must do well among blue collar Democrats. Clinton has owned these low- to middle-income voters, and Obama must score well among them.

If Tavis wanted to have an impact, he should have held his event before Louisiana or before the Mississippi primary. As the saying goes, bad planning on your part doesn't constitute a sense of urgency on mine.

3. He can't be defined again as the black candidate. Some will say he must avoid black folks to be more palatable to whites and Hispanics. I disagree. But you can't deny the reality that he's running for president of the United States and not president of Black America. The week of the South Carolina was all about race, and he knows that is not a winning discussion because of this nation's history. His campaign successfully beat back that issue since South Carolina, winning nearly all-white states like Utah, Idaho, Montana, Minnesota, Delaware, Connecticut, and Nebraska.

Obama is looking to have mass appeal, and showing up in New Orleans at a State of the Black Union event doesn't help him at all in a close race.

4. Send Michelle Obama. What is the purpose of surrogates if you can't make it somewhere? His wife is perfectly suited for this event, and that frees him up to go elsewhere. Plus, he's his top surrogate, and having a female counter your female opponent isn't a bad matchup.

Ask any campaign manager and they will tell you that when it comes to politics, especially in a close race, every minute matters. Candidates are on the phone lines campaigning, trying to raise money, and secure endorsements.

Spending the day with Tavis and his panelists is vital for Clinton. For Obama, time spent courting Latinos in Texas is more important.

African Americans are asking a lot of Obama, the best chance blacks have ever had of one of their own capturing the White House. I often hear folks say they want to know if he is going to back "their" issues. It is no different than how white women are feeling about Clinton. These are indeed historic firsts.

By the way, when people say that black issues are being ignored in the campaign, they are wrong.

The Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, the nation's most prestigious think tank devoted to African American issues, released a survey showing that the top issues to blacks are the war in Iraq; healthcare; jobs and the economy; and education.

Sounds to me like the candidates have spent a lot of time on those issues, although they could always do more.

As an aside, when I asked my radio listeners on WVON in Chicago if Obama should skip the event, we got 29 calls in two hours, and only two said he should go. And this is a crowd that is normally in agreement with Smiley.

Question of the Day: Do you think Sen. Barack Obama should attend Tavis Smiley's State of the Black Union event in New Orleans on Feb. 23?

Comments

[Lawrence]

Hey Roland,

I completely agree with you. First, I was REALLY ticked off at Tavis at last year's event. They acted like spoiled little kids who hadn't been invited to the party when Barack didn't come. That told me that Tavis and a number of his panel members were either ego driven, or so beholden to the Clintons that they were going to be on the front lines of the negative whisper campaign against Obama. If I were Obama, I would send Michelle and a fruit basket. These State of the Black Union conferences have turned into diatribe fests anyway, where Tavis shills his latest book while the panelists tell us what we already know already.

[nic]

Interesting question!

I disagree w/ Mr. Martin on this one. I think he SHOULD attend.
Clinton will take any chance she gets to present herself as more favorable to Black America. If she shows up & he doesn't, what do you think Tavis will say? Sending Michelle is risky, because of how it might be perceived. I think she would do wonderfully, and probably smash Clinton in any type of debate, but her presence would be seen as Obama blowing them off.

I think he's kind of stuck on this one...he has to go & give some face time...then take the next flight for Houston.

I understand the point about Clinton needing free air time, but in this case, I think Obama has to oblige, lest we have to revisit that degrading question of whether or not he's "black enough" again.

[SJAY]

I think Obama ought to make a brief obligatory appearance, not a lengthy debate. Ask Michelle to attend the majority of the event...
This is the "Little Train that Could" and he's got to keep on chuggin..yes we can, yes we can. Texas is calling and Obama needs to get here as fast as possible to keep that momentum going. Love ya, Tavis, but we got bigger fish to fry right now and time's a wastin'. Let's not sit around talking about it, let's get out and BE about it.

[Kim Johnson]

Obama should not attend this event. I don't know what is wrong with Black America; this State of the Union address to Black America is clearly needed because racism still exists. So with that knowledge, why are people still feeling they need to have Obama prove he cares about the Black community. Obama cannot win as the President of Black America- He needs to show other races that he is the president for everyone. So far his campaign has worked and he should not mess with this success of transcending race. Obviously he cares about the Black community. Focusing on race is not going to help Obama. Especially when he needs to focus on winning more votes in Texas. This is a huge powerplay by Clinton. Obama is losing the Latino and Asian vote because America keeps making him discuss Black/White. If he goes on Tavis's show, Hillary is going to make this even more about Black/White knowing that Obama will be putting the latino vote at risk. Kudos to the suggestion that this is something Michelle Obama should attend. Hillary can't play the victim role with gender.

[KB]

Can't he attend via sattelite to the main event, with Michelle there live for the whole thing??? Can't hate on him behind his back if he's listening.

[RealB.G.]

This is just another incident that is causing me to question Brother Tavis. He has used his radio address on Tom Joyner to be extremely critical of Obama and Clinton. He talks about accountability; however, I have a question for him. He held one of the early debates. He had time to review all the candidates legislative records and hold them accountable for votes or legislation that negatively impacted our community. He did not. Not holding them accountable during a nationally televised debate does not demonstrate service to our community. Now he is demanding that they show up again. How much free media can he get out the message that people don't show up to his events? He should have held them accountable at Howard University. Obama is trying to close the gap against someone with 20 years of name recognition. If I were Obama, I would go with Michelle and Dr. West. Do his part early, allow Dr. West to serve as surrogate and let Michelle close the deal.

[jduncan]

No he should not attend. He needs to concentrate on the other voters that he currently does not have full support from.

[Stacey]

I agree with you wholeheartedly on this one Roland. I think Michelle Obama would be great here, but Barack absolutely has to spend his time in Texas and Ohio and concentrate on winning - and winning alone. Clinton has the advantage of name recognition - especially among Latino voters. It'd be in the best interest of Barack and his campaign staff to have him criss-crossing the two states. I hope Barack or someone senior adviser to his campaign reads this post, and I hope some sensible person working for Tavis Smiley gets through to him.

To be most effective, Barack has to win - thus he must do what it takes to win. He's winning with African Americans, let him court the votes of those where he's not doing so well. That's fair, right?

[Dr, Shabazz]

No he should not attend! Is Tavis CRAZY! Why would he even ask him when he knows that his focus and all of his attention should be on the big states. Tavis is creating havoc for future President Obama. This really ticks me off. It seems as though Tavis is working for H. Clinton! So, my vote is NO! I have a suggestion for Tavis and Obama. Why don't they arrange to have a closed circuit feed or something. That way Sen. Obama can still be in Texas were he needs to be if he is going to when this election. Roland, is there any way you can get these comments to Sen. Obama? I think that this is a tactic with encouragement from the Clinton's to take the momentum from Obama. She (Clinton) can do whatever she wants but she cannot stop a movement!

[SAWilson]

Senator Obama should not attend. I am an African-American who attended the State of the Black Union last year in Hampton, Virginia. Yes the topics of disscussions were pertaining to Afican-Americans and were extremely important for us as a community but that is the point it pertained to only African-Americans. If Senator Obama focuses on being the presidential candidate for Black people he will not be the President of the United States of America. Remember there is a time and place for everything. Now is not the time for Tavis.

[O. Pinyon]

No, I don't think that Senator Obama should attend the event; but, I think it important that he send an envoy to show respect for the participants and in a very subtle manner call the question about the political motives of the host. Tavis Smiley wants to be King Maker of the African American community and he wants to be credentialed to enter the White House on D.C. stopovers. A few weeks ago on Tom Joyner's Show, Smiley made a comment to the effect, don't check out on the Brother, but check the Brother out, referring to Barak Obama, from that point, I had no further use for Mr. Smiley. Besides, isn't Smiley the same one who constantly refers to the Clintons as his dear friends? Lastly, any halfway astute participant in the political arena would not invite any candidate to such an event at this time, if only out of respect for the incredible demands on their time, schedule and focus. Shame on Tavis for letting his ego get the best of him -- again!

[TL]

I totally agree w/ Roland. Obama needs to focus on Texas and Ohio. We're not naive enough to believe that Obama is unaware of Black America's issues or that he doesn't have a plan to address them. The Hispanic vote is extremely important if he's going to win the nomination and general election. Tavis needs to chill out.

[A.D]

I think Tavis is only thinking about himself! He's always talking about Black America, well he need to start by putting the lid back on the barrel and stop being a CRAB! Let Sen.Obama do his thing Tavis and stand down for a minute.Brother!

[Darrell Lodon]

Tavis Smiley is quickly becoming irrelevant to the new movement and a deterrent to The Dream. The new movement is about unity and building bridges between cultures. Tavis and many of his cohorts, live off divisiveness. The audacity of him to issue an ultimatum as if he's Almighty; his voice is at the beginning stages of fading to black. He needs to get down with the get down and use his voice to unite this country instead of create this drama!

Obama should make an appearance out of courteous in route to Texas. He should not attend the entire event, nor engage in a debate at said event. He should say to the crowd, 'I stopped by to let you know I love you!’ Then move on.

I'm,

Darrell London.

[Elliott]

No he should not go. But if Michelle isn't equipped to debate with a seasoned veteran in Clinton, I dont think she should attend either. Let's hope black folk at the State of the Black Union read your blog Roland!

[V. Knox]

I completely agree with you, Roland. SENATOR OBAMA SHOULD NOT GO TO THE TAVIS SMILEY STATE OF THE BLACK UNION. Tavis Smiley is a self promoting blow heart. He has been extremely cruel to Sen. Obama on the Tom Joyner Morning Show and now he wants them to come to his event. Is this what you call ironic behavior?
GO AWAY TAVIS SMILEY!!!!!!!!!!!!

[O. Shaw, Jr.]

I think he (Obama) should go to Texas...as you so well stated...he's running to become President of the United States...not the President of Black America....let's keep our eyes on the prize people....

[Denise]

I agree Totally with you on this Roland....I'm offended that Tavis has the audacity to insist ANY candidate should drop their campaigning to attend his event. The heat is ON and Candidates need to focus their attention, energies and finances on the next primary. I already know both Obama and Clinton ARE committed to addressing issues relative to the African American community.

If Tavis really wants to hold politicians accountable.....have a One-on-One interview with John McCain and discuss why he and other Republican Candidates declined to attend the Presidential Forum held in Sept 07 at Morgan State. I'm sure he will decline....again.

[Ron]

His main situation is to get delegates in Texas and Ohio! He can send his wife or appear via satellite. Travis you are Cool but please remember Obama needs to get ahead in the delegate count. Please don't start tripping out. Stay the course.

[freeeternally]

All of the presidential candidates should attend the SOBU. It perplexes me as an African American woman that we say the candidates need to court the Asian and Hispanic vote, yet not ours? Well that's short sided and foolish, once again voicing that we as part of the fabric of America, our issues, and are votes can be taken for granted. I would like to see all of the candidates stand up and address the issues that effect the poor and disenfranchised from all communities in diverse settings, town halls, reservations, etc. I hope our complacency doesn't come back to haunt us with whom ever is elected because we did and take the opportunity to ask the hard questions that Mr. Smiley has worked so hard to create a venue in order for us to do so.

[Erica]

Thank you for your article. I agree with you Roland. The next stop for Obama should be Texas and Ohio. Tavis needs to get his head out of his butt and grown the hell up. In order for Obama to win, he has to appeal to all americans.

[Kenneth]

I hope Senator Obama doesn't show up. This proves to me why a Black person would never become a U. S. president. Why does Senator Obama has to affirm his blackness? Sometime I wonder who is actually politically enlighten or who is fooling whom.

Genetically, he is blacker than the majority of the so called Blacks in this country. How many of us can state that we have a direct linage to Africa.

Let's keep moving.

[Elliott]

Freeeternally,

You feel like Obama might be taking the black vote for granted...which I can understand your point... but sista, you must see the bigger picture here.

How about this novel idea... we help get him in the white house FIRST..THEN we take him to task on black issues. You game?

[Clarence]

Dear Roland,
You are absolutely correct. Obama should be in Texas "pressing the flesh" if that means missing the State of the Black Union event. Reason why, let's look at the bigger picture here, would anyone rather he attend the event and possibly lose Texas and even the nomination or skip the event, win Texas, and the nomination! I'll take the latter everyday of the week. And although I love Tavis for what he's done, he's just wrong on this one and I hope he realizes that ASAP! Giving a Presidential nominee an ultimatum is generally not a good idea especially when he's got a very good chance to be the first African Amercian President in history!

[V. Knox]

Can somebody please help me with this recollection.........I might be mistaken but What Tavis Smiley present at the Jena 6 Situations, or at the death of the black youth at the correction camp?

Because as I see it with all of his promoting and talk - he should have been front and center. Further, I am an African-American female and Tavis Smiley does not speak for me. He is only front and center at these events, which I am sure generate interesting discussions about the state of Black America, however, right now we need more than a discussion - he has been doing this for a couple of years and all I hear is that his books have hit the New York Times Best Seller List and he ask everyone "to please keep buying because it is the first time this type of book has debuted at the top five". Well. Mr. Smiley this is the first viable African-American Candidate for Presidency EVER AND WE WOULD LIKE FOR HIM TO REPRESENT EVERYONE ELSE AS WELL...HE NEEDS TO BE IN TEXAS....SO GET OVER YOURSELF TAVIS- no one is listening.